How to Analyse Stocks in the Secondary Market?

How to Analyse Stocks?

There’s no single way to analyse stocks, but a good place to start is by reviewing financial statements. From there, common methods include technical, qualitative, quantitative, and fundamental analysis.

Key Points:

•   There are four common methods of analysing stocks: technical analysis, qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, and fundamental analysis.

•   Technical analysis focuses on supply and demand patterns in stock charts to make investment decisions.

•   Qualitative analysis examines factors like a company’s leadership, product, and industry to evaluate investment opportunities.

•   Quantitative analysis uses data and numerical figures to predict price movements in stocks.

•   Fundamental analysis looks at a company’s financial health and value to determine if its stock is under or overvalued.

 

Why is analysing stocks important?

 

The process of stock analysis can reveal important information about a company and its history, allowing investors to make more informed decisions about buying or selling stocks. Analysing stocks can help investors identify which investment opportunities they believe will deliver strong returns. Further, stock analysis can assist investors in spotting potentially bad investments.

Whether your strategy involves short- vs. long-term investing or day trading, analysing stocks is going to be important.

Understanding Financial Statements

The first step in understanding stock analysis is knowing the basics of business reporting. There are three main types of financial statements that an investor may want to look at when doing analysis:

 

•   Income statement: This statement shows a company’s profits, which are calculated by subtracting expenses from revenue.

 

•   Balance sheet: The balance sheet compares a company’s assets, liabilities, and stockholder equity.

 

•   Statement of cash flows: This statement outlines how a company is spending and earning its money.

In addition to these statements, a company’s earnings report contains information that can be useful for doing qualitative analysis. The annual report includes the company’s plans for the future and stock value predictions.

4 Ways to Analyse a Stock:

The next step in stock evaluation is deciding which type of analysis to do. Here’s a look at some of the different methods for how to analyse a stock.

1. Technical Analysis:

Technical analysis is a method for analysing stocks that looks directly at a stock’s supply and demand in order to make investing decisions. This form of analysis takes the stance that all information needed is present within stock charts and the analysis of history and trends.

Some key focal points of technical analysis are:

•   Stock prices move in trends.

•   History repeats itself.

•   Stock price history can be used to make price predictions.

•   A stock price contains all relevant information for making investing decisions.

•   Technical analysis does not consider intrinsic value.

Trend indicators are one of the most important parts of technical analysis. These indicators attempt to show traders whether a stock will go up or down in value. Uptrends mean higher highs and higher lows, whereas downtrends mean lower lows and lower highs. Some common trend tools include linear regression, parabolic SAR, MACD, and moving averages.

Technical analysis also uses leading indicators and lagging indicators. Leading indicators signal before new trends occur, while lagging indicators signal after a trend has ended. These indicators look at information such as volume, price, price movement, open, and close.

There can be some pros and cons to using technical analysis, however, which can be important to consider when factoring in your risk tolerance.

Day traders tend to focus on technical analysis to try to capitalise on short-term price fluctuations. But because technical analysis generally focuses on short-term fluctuations in price, it’s not as often used for finding long-term investment opportunities.

Further, while technical analysis relies on objective and consistent data, it can produce false signals, particularly during trading conditions that aren’t ideal. This method of analysis also fails to take into consideration key fundamentals about individual shares or the stock market.

2. Qualitative Stock Analysis:

When considering how to analyse a stock, it’s generally a good idea to look at whether the company behind the stock is really a good business. Qualitative analysis looks into factors like a company’s leadership team, products, and the overall industry it’s a part of.

A few key qualitative metrics include:

•   Competitive advantage: Does the company have a unique edge that will help it be successful in the long term? If a company has patents, a unique manufacturing method, or broad distribution, these can be positive competitive advantages.

•   Business model: Analysing a business model includes looking at products, services, brand identity, and customers to get a sense of what the company is offering.

•   Strong leadership: Even a great idea and product can fail with poor management. Looking into the credentials of the CEO and top executives of a company can help in evaluating whether it’s a good investment.

•   Industry trends: If an industry is struggling, or looks like it may in the future, an investor may decide not to invest in companies in that industry. On the other hand, new and growing industries may be better investments. This is not always the case, as there are strong companies in weak industries, and vice versa.

3. Quantitative Analysis:

Similar to technical analysis, quantitative analysis looks at data and numbers in an attempt to predict future price movements. Specifically, quantitative analysis evaluates data, such as a company’s revenues, price-to-earnings ratio, and earnings-per-share ratio, and uses statistical modelling and mathematical techniques to predict a stock’s value.

The upside is that this financial data is publicly available, and it creates an objective, consistent starting point. It can help with identifying patterns, and it can be useful in assessing risk. However, it requires sifting through a lot of data. Further, there’s no certainty when it comes to patterns, which can change.

4. Fundamental Analysis:

Fundamental analysis looks at a company from a basic financial standpoint. This gives investors a sense of the company’s financial health and whether its stock may be under- or overvalued. Fundamental analysis takes the stance that a company’s stock price doesn’t necessarily equate to its value.

There are a number of key tools for fundamental analysis that investors might want to familiarise themselves with and use to get a fuller picture of a stock.

Earnings Per Share (EPS):

One of the main goals for many investors is to buy into profitable companies. Earnings per share, or EPS, tells investors how much profit a company earns per each share of stock and how much investors are benefiting from those earnings. Companies report EPS quarterly, and the figure is calculated by dividing a company’s net income, minus dividend payouts, by the number of outstanding shares.

Understanding earnings per share can give investors guidance on a stock’s potential movement. On a basic level, a high EPS is a good sign, but it’s especially important that a company shows a high or growing EPS over time. The reason for this is that a company might have a temporarily high EPS if they cut some expenses or sell off assets, but that wouldn’t be a good indicator of the actual profitability of their business.

Likewise, a negative EPS over time is an indicator that an investor may not want to buy a stock.

Revenue:

While EPS relates directly to a company’s stock, revenue can show investors how well a company is doing outside the markets. Positive and increasing revenues are an indicator that a company is growing and expanding.

Some large companies, especially tech companies, have increasing revenues over time with a negative EPS because they continue to feed profits back into the growing business. These companies can see significant stock value increases despite their lack of profit.

One can also look at revenue growth, which tracks changes in revenue over time.

Price-to-earnings (P/E) Ratio:

One of the most common methods of analysing stocks is to look at the P/E ratio, which compares a company’s current stock price to its earnings per share. P/E is found by dividing the price of one share of a stock by its EPS. Generally, a lower P/E ratio is a good sign.

Using this ratio is a good way to compare different stocks. One can also compare an individual company’s P/E ratio with an index like the S&P 500 Index to get a sense of how the company is doing relative to the overall market.

The downside of P/E is that it doesn’t include growth.

Price-Earnings-Growth (PEG) Ratio:

Since P/E doesn’t include growth, the PEG ratio is another popular tool for analysing stocks and evaluating stock performance. To look at EPS and revenue together, investors can use the price-earnings-growth ratio, or PEG.

PEG is calculated by dividing a stock’s P/E by its projected 12-month forward revenue growth rate. In general, a PEG lower than 1 is a good sign, and a PEG higher than 2 indicates that a stock may be overpriced.

PEG can also be used to make predictions about the future. By looking at PEG for different time periods in the past, investors can make a more informed guess about what the stock may do next.

Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S):

The P/S ratio compares a company’s stock price to its revenues. It’s found by dividing the stock price by revenues. This can be useful when comparing competitors — if the P/S is low, it might be more advantageous to buy.

Debt-Equity Ratio:

Although profits and revenue are important to look at, so is a company’s debt and its ability to pay it back. If a company goes into more and more debt in order to continue growing, and they’re unable to pay it back, it’s not a good sign.

The debt-equity ratio is found by dividing a company’s total liabilities (debt) by its shareholder equity. In general, a debt-equity ratio under 0.1 is a good sign, while a debt-equity ratio higher than 0.5 can be a red flag for the future.

Debt-to-EBITDA:

Similar to debt-to-equity, debt-to-EBITDA measures the ability a company has to pay off its debts. EBITDA stands for earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation.

A high debt-to-EBITDA ratio indicates that a company has a high amount of debt that it may not be able to pay off.

Dividend Yield:

While a stock’s price can vary significantly from day to day, dividend payments are a way that investors can earn a consistent amount of money each quarter or year. Not every company pays out dividends, but large, established companies sometimes pay out some of their earnings to shareholders rather than reinvesting the money into their business.

Dividend yield is calculated by dividing a company’s annual dividend payment by its share price.

One thing to note is that dividends are not guaranteed — companies can change their dividend amounts at any time. So if a company has a particularly high dividend yield, it may not stay that way.

Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B):

Price-to-book ratio, or P/B, compares a company’s stock market value to its book value. This is a useful tool for finding companies that are currently undervalued, meaning those that have a significant amount of growth but still relatively low stock prices.

The P/B ratio is found by dividing the market price of a stock by the company’s book value of equity. The book value of equity is found by subtracting the company’s total liabilities from its assets.

Company Reports and Projections:

When companies release quarterly and annual earnings reports, many of them include projections for upcoming revenue and EPS. These reports are a useful tool for investors to get a sense of a stock’s future. They can also affect stock prices, as other shareholders and investors will react to the news in the report.

Professional Analysis:

Wall Street analysts regularly release reports about the overall stock market as well as individual companies and stocks. These reports include information such as 12-month targets, stock ratings, company comparisons, and financial projections. By reading multiple reports, investors may start to see common trends.

While analysts aren’t always correct and can’t predict global events that affect the markets, these reports can be a useful tool for investors. They can keep them up-to-date on any key happenings that may be on the horizon for particular companies. The information in the reports also can result in stock prices going up or down, since investors will react to the predictions.

Quantitative vs Qualitative Analysis:

Here’s a quick rundown looking at the key differences between quantitative and qualitative analysis. Again, this can be important when weighing your risk tolerance as an investor.

Quantitative vs. Qualitative Analysis
Quantitative Analysis	Qualitative Analysis
Looks at data and numerical figures to predict price movements	Looks at business factors such as leadership, product, and industry
May require sifting through a lot of data, and may be difficult for some investors	Metrics include business models, competitive advantage, and industry trends
Concerned more with the “quantity” and hard data a business produces	Concerned more with the “quality” of a business

 

Pros and Cons of Doing Your Own Stock Analysis:

If you feel like you can do a little stock analysis on your own, there are some pros and cons to it.

Pros:

Perhaps the most obvious pro to doing your own stock analysis is that you don’t need to pay someone else to do it; you can do it on your own schedule and learn as you go. You can develop knowledge that’ll likely help you as you continue to invest in the future. There are also numerous tools out there that you can use to analyse stocks which may not have been around in years or decades past.

Cons:

Stock analysis can be an involved process, which can require a lot of investment in and of itself – both monetarily (if you’re using paid tools) and in terms of time. Depending on how deep you want to go, too, it can be a complex process. You may get frustrated or burnt out, or even make a mistake that leads to a bad investment decision.

  Note: Please don't take Tips from unknown sources and do your own analysis for investing and Trading in Stock Market.